Houston has a problem controlling the central
Despite being able to watch the most dominant team in baseball through the first half of the season, Astros fans should be apprehensive about the immediate future. Houston went 60-29 through the first three months, but since the halfway point they’ve lost more than they’ve gained.
The front office did little on the trade deadline, in part because the Astros had such a big lead in the AL West that the playoffs were almost a certainty. Other contenders like Washington and Los Angeles had similarly big upsides but acquired players that will help them in the playoffs.
Most baseball pundits assumed that by the trade deadline, the Astros would have added a starter to bolster their pitching rotation, a veteran like the Rangers’ Yu Darvish, the Tigers’ Justin Verlander or the Athletics’ Sonny Gray. After failing to improve their personnel, Houston suffered the loss of their ace.
Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel went on the disabled list in July, which was a major setback for the Astros. The southpaw has since returned but hasn’t won in three starts with a 10.50 ERA.
During that same recent stretch, No. 2 starter Lance McCullers also hasn’t won with a 9.42 ERA. With the top two arms in the rotation struggling, the Astros must fear an early exit from the postseason.
There’s another reason, perhaps less obvious than pitching problems, to be pessimistic about Houston’s chances of advancing to the playoffs. It’s about their likely opponents in either the American League Division Series or the Championship Series, since in at least one of those games the Astros will have to face a team from the Central Division.
For whatever reason, Houston has really struggled against teams in the middle of the Junior Circuit. The Astros have a losing record against those five clubs, including a 1-5 record with likely Central champion Cleveland.
They also have a losing record against wild-card contender Kansas City, the opponent the Astros would face in the first round if they maintain the best record in the league. To top it off, Houston hasn’t won in three games against the White Sox, who reside in last place in the Central.
The good news is that if Houston somehow overcomes its futility against the Central and wins its first AL pennant, it has an excellent odds of winning the World Series. The Astros’ record against the National League is the best in baseball, having won nine of their ten interleague games this season.