NFL favorites run amok in 2005!
The favorites have had an incredible year and refuse to budge.
ATS and O/U numbers from 2005 to date (through week 13):
SU: 132-44-0 (75.0% at 7.3 points per game)
ATS: 98-72-6 (57.6%) midline -5.0
Or: 85-88-3 (49.1%) total average 41.3
That’s +18.8 units blind-betting any favorite on the board. Crazy numbers, especially when you consider that it is -169.9 units in the previous 8 years! (-21.2 average per season). With 5 weeks to go, no other season has come close to seeing these lopsided results. So this has either been a statistical anomaly or a sign of other things that happened during the offseason and regular season. I’m beginning to think that the way talent has been heavily amassed on some teams during the offseason (free agency, draft) is a big factor. Other teams like the Texans are on the opposite side and when good and bad meet it hasn’t been competitive. Injuries have also played a role in minor teams, especially QB. Non-contact “rule emphasis” and other things to open up the passing game could also be to blame. In the past, a smaller team slowed down receivers more, changed the flow of the game, and stayed more competitive. Playing it legitimately now means more wide receivers and they have to defend the run differently. The team with the midfielders in QB, WR, CB, etc. then they’ve gotten a bigger lead and, ultimately, the deck.
Favorites in previous regular seasons:
2004: 117-125-7 (48.3%) -20.5 units
2003: 129-118-7 (52.2%) -0.8 units
2002: 108-137-4 (44.1%) -42.7 units
2001: 114-125-7 (47.7%) -23.5 units
2000: 114-125-3 (47.7%) -23.5 units
1999: 106-122-15 (46.5%) -28.2 units
1998: 119-106-13 (52.9%) +2.4 units
1997: 100-121-13 (45.2%) -33.1 units
Just a side note for the guys who use small books abroad. A large number of new sportsbooks appear every year and they may not be able to cover their losses. This has happened in the past as well. If you’re using a smaller, lesser-known sportsbook, I’d consider taking out a good chunk of my money now and keeping smaller balances to be on the safe side. Bigger, established books like MVP, CRIS, Pinnacle, BoDog, etc. They’re not really a concern, but the doubters could be in trouble if this continues. The strange thing is that during the last month of the season, the favorites tend to do better as the cream rises to the top in a playoff push mode. November usually favors dogs to a great extent, but not this year.