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The results of a particular soccer pool coupon/match number are random, but in individual matches where team strengths are measured and compared, in circumstances that I will identify, they are not random.

Let’s compare the pools with roulette. Many would see roulette as a game of chance. Of course it isn’t, at least from the casino’s point of view. The ‘House’, that is, the casino, has an advantage. In Europe, that edge is 2.70%, set by law, but that’s all that’s required in the long run to ensure the Chamber makes a profit.

Therefore, the fundamental approach to winning in soccer pools is to ensure that you have an advantage, that is, the odds of winning are slightly skewed in your favor of the pairs.

In general, soccer teams generally play to form, although not all results are in line with form, which is what makes it work for soccer pool companies.

Of course, to win the jackpot in British football pools – the absolute top prize – you have to have 8 draws on a line and there must be only 8 draws on the coupon and of course you have to be the only one with that line that week. The odds of that are very high: just picking 8 draws out of 16 matches has odds of 451 million to 1.

So what are the basic elements in a strategy to improve the odds of winning?

An element is the way the input is placed. Specific plans and permanents are important. These are the ways to enter multiple lines in the weekly entry, offering different levels of ‘cover’ and ‘collateralization’, which should be measured based on your budget and risk attitude. This is an entire subgenre in its own right, with plenty of supporters for both causes and plenty of storylines as well. Strong cases on each side, and that usually means the difference is marginal, with plans offering specific, limited guarantees and Full Permissions offering a 100% guarantee (as long as you’ve selected 8 score ties on your ticket) but fewer matches covered for a given budget.

Just as the house has a long-term advantage in roulette, it is important to view winning soccer pools as a potential long term opportunity. This leads to the need to persevere. The only week you didn’t make them could have been the week you won. You have to persist. A ‘percentage’ approach is essential. So, perseverance is a second element in the strategy.

Finally, one of Sun Tzu’s guidelines, in essence, was to always fight in the territory. you have chosen If we think of our analogy with the casino, then would the casino open the roulette table on a night when its statistical advantage was absent?

Probably not, although they could see it in a long-term context and to keep their customers happy. After all, big wins are good for your marketing even if they’re not good for your bottom line.

So, to maximize your long-term advantage in the groups, don’t waste your bet on competitions where the teams are less likely to play together to form, say, the FA Cup (to take a British example). Unless of course you want to do it for fun! After all, many gamblers play roulette just for fun and don’t expect to win seriously. This is another key element in the strategy.

Finally, I alluded to form in the first paragraph. This is the final piece of the strategic puzzle. Identify a way to measure the way the teams play. You will then be in a position to compare the ratings on the forms match by match and rule out obviously one-sided matches. This is the most significant factor in the strategy.

Therefore, in summary, some basic elements of a strategy to optimize your possibilities are reduced to:

1. Use plans or permanents that maximize the coverage of your selection, within your budget.

2. Take a long-term perspective and persevere.

3. Be selective about the weeks you play pools, to maximize the likelihood of teams playing to form.

4. Use a selection approach that measures team performance and, by comparison, allows you to eliminate one-sided matches or games.

These are the four main elements of a strategy to optimize the odds in your favor.

Copyright (c) 2009 Phil Trademarks