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adrian peterson

Adrian Peterson gave the Sophomore Slump a stiff arm when he won the NFL career title in 2008. He rushed for 1,760 yards on 363 carries (4.8) with 10 TDs. He had 21 receptions for 125 yards. He went over 100 yards ten times and went under 76 yards only once. Talk about constant production. Despite having two monster games as a rookie (224 and 296), he topped 75 yards just seven times. His consistency improved dramatically. What I like about AP is how he takes responsibility. He really takes his “shortcomings” seriously and works hard to improve himself. I expect him to be even more complete in 2009, which should scare opposing defences.

The Vikings face Cincinnati, Carolina and Chicago in the fantasy playoffs. Cincy has much improved defense (on paper), but she should still be able to get away with them. Carolina could be tough. Chicago isn’t the same defense it has been in the past, but it should present a challenge, especially at home. AP should get off to a fast start facing Cleveland and Detroit in Weeks 1 and 2 and St. Louis in Week 5. They should dominate Detroit in Week 10 and Arizona in Week 13.

AP will go 1 or 2 in most leagues. Standard scoring, he’ll probably be No. 1, while the PPR leagues could push him to No. 2. I think he’s even better in 2009 rushing for 1,800 yards and 14 TDs.

Michael Turner

Michael Turner more than proved that he was capable of stepping out of the shadow of LT to be a standout racer. At the beginning of the season he was inconsistent. I would dominate bad Defenses [Detroit, KC, GB (injuries), Oakland, Denver] and be bottled by the good guys [TB, Carolina, Chicago, Philly]. However, something happened in Week 12 when he destroyed Carolina for 117 yards and 4 TDs. He turned into a machine that put up solid games against everyone he faced, including TB and a tough D-run from Minnesota. He had over 100 yards and/or a TD in his last nine games.

Still, there is cause for concern despite the monstrous numbers (1,699 yards, 17 TDs). He had 376 carries last year. That’s a lot for a runner, even if he didn’t have much mileage before the season. Historically, ORs with such a heavy workload see a drop in production the following year. I’m already asking for his touchdowns to be cut because of the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who is excellent in the 20s. He’ll face a tougher schedule this year with games against Miami, New England, Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia. , and the Jets, along with two games against Carolina and Tampa Bay. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of matchups with New Orleans, the Jets and Buffalo, which isn’t terrible. Despite the likely drop in production, I still think Turner will be in the top 3-4. He expected 1700 total yards and 13 TDs.

maurice jones drew

Maurice Jones-Drew finally has a chance to prove he can be a standout running back in the NFL. Given what he’s done in a somewhat limited role, the fantasy world is salivating at the thought of what he could do in a larger role. Naturally, there is some risk in taking on a player who has never had 200 carries in a season, but that can be seen as an advantage since he hasn’t put up much mileage. Despite his 5’7″ height, he is quite durable. That’s because he packs 208 pounds of muscle on that frame. He is a bowling ball with big moves and speed. What’s more impressive is his nose for the end zone. Mojo has 40 TDs (34 rushing, 4 receiving, 2 returning) in his three years. He also has a great talent for catching the ball from the backfield. He has had more than 40 receptions each year, including a career-high 62 for him last year. He should benefit greatly from a healthy offensive line, which was the main reason behind Jacksonville’s disappointing 2008 season.

This year Jacksonville has good matchups against Arizona in Week 2, St. Louis in Week 6, Kansas City in Week 9 and Cleveland in Week 17, which doesn’t help most fantasy owners. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of Miami, Indianapolis and New England, which is less than desirable. Of course, a RB with MJD’s versatility has the ability to produce against anyone.

Mo-Jo is likely to be in the top three picks in most leagues, perhaps #1 overall in PPR leagues. I fully expect him to live up to his high expectations. I’m putting him at 2000 total yards with 14 total TDs.

strong matte

Like most of this year’s top Running Backs, there are some question marks with Matt Forte. AP will likely have to deal with a gunman taking over as QB. MJD has never had more than 200 carries, so it’s unknown how he’ll handle a higher workload. Michael Turner had a ton of carries last year, which has historically been bad for next year’s production. Matt Forte’s questions are similar to AP’s. What will adding a proven QB to your production mean? With Jay Cutler under Center, will Forte lose carries? Probable. His ability to catch the ball though (he led all RBs with 63 receptions last year) will keep him very involved on the Offense. Will his presence open up the running game by keeping defenses honest? Probable. Though I don’t expect Forte’s production to suffer from Cutler’s arrival.

The main thing Forte had going for him was consistency. He just failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game (8.5 in week 4 against Philly) during the typical fantasy season (he had 7.5 in week 17). He scored a TD in 10 of the first 16 games. He didn’t have monster games, but he delivered every week. Despite playing in an offense with limited-ability position players, Forte had 1,715 total yards and 12 total TDs.

He has a fairly friendly fantasy schedule from the start facing Detroit in Week 4 (unfortunately the second matchup is Week 17), a three game streak in Weeks 7-9 against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Arizona, and the Week 13 vs. St. Louis. His fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, which makes him a high-sell candidate. He faces Green Bay, Baltimore and Minnesota. His pass-catching ability should help, but that’s a tough schedule at the worst possible time.

Though he might struggle down the stretch, he should still be good for 1,700 total yards and 10+ TDs. Unless he gets injured, he will be selected in the top four picks with a slight increase in the PPR leagues.