NFL down the stretch
As Bob Dylan used to sing, times are changing, especially in the NFL American Football Conference.
“Parity,” said Chuck Esposito, Caesars Palace’s chief bookkeeper, summing up the current state of the NFL in one word.
The much-hyped Indianapolis, which failed to make it to last season’s Super Bowl following the unexpected death of coach Tony Dungy’s son, still entered 2006 as a heavy favorite to represent the AFC in February’s mid-winter extravaganza. although the Colts lost three of four exhibition games.
But something happened on the way to Miami.
Indy stumbled in three of its last five games and allowed the electrifying LaDainian Tomlinson and his San Diego teammates to knock the Colts off their perch and put leading quarterback Peyton Manning in his place, though the defense against the career seems to be the biggest culprit.
Las Vegas sportsbooks this week boosted Super Bowl futures on Indy and New England, while lowering them on the Chargers and Ravens.
“San Diego is the best football team right now, but we’ll see what happens in the future,” said John Avello, the veteran bookmaker who runs sports betting operations at Wynn Las Vegas.
Avello left the Chargers in the same 7/2 to 3/1 neighborhood where Chicago resides, while raising the Colts to 5/1.
“I’m trying to get money out of Indianapolis,” Avello explained.
Eric St. Clair, head of books at The Cannery in North Las Vegas and Rampart Casino in Summerlin, cut San Diego to 2/1 and the Ravens to 5/1.
He raised Indianapolis to 6/1 and New England to 8/1.
“The thing about the Chargers is they haven’t been tested for a long time.”
San Diego last lost to Kansas City on October 22; the Chargers were also beaten by Baltimore three weeks earlier.
They close against Seattle and Arizona.
In the current state of the AFC, San Diego, New England, Baltimore and Indy will each win division titles, with Cincinnati and Jacksonville having the best chance of earning wild-card spots and the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs considered long shots.
“Baltimore is our only liability with a legitimate chance to get there,” said Jeff Sherman, sportsbook supervisor and Hilton oddsmaker.
Sherman has admired the Chargers, Tomlinson, quarterback Phillip Rivers and linebacker Shawne Merriman from the beginning, even more so with those important players healthy and all back in the lineup.
“I’m not sold on Indianapolis at all,” Sherman said.
“I don’t have much faith in his defense against the run.
“It’s going to be tough for the Colts, for sure.
“It looks like they would have to play San Diego in San Diego for the AFC title, if they get that far.
“There is no Colts home dome.”
Substantially based on Sherman’s opinion, the Hilton has adjusted its Super Bowl futures considerably.
The Chargers are 6/5, Indy and Baltimore 3/1 and New England 5/1.
Chicago, which clinched the NFC North Division title, capitalized on home-field advantage during the playoffs with a Week 15 victory over Tampa Bay.
The Saints, bolstered by the presence of Heisman Trophy running back Reggie Bush and former Chargers quarterback Drew Brees, have compiled the second-best record in the NFC behind the Bears’ 12-2 record.
New Orleans holds a two-game lead in the South over Atlanta, which is among the NFC teams clinging to playoff hopes.
Dallas leads Philadelphia by one game in the East, while reigning NFC champion Seattle has a clear ride in the West.
Despite their consistency and apparent mission, not to mention easy coverage against St. Louis last Monday night, bookmakers still have questions about how good the Bears really are.
Questions still center on quarterback Rex Grossman, who had one of his best starts against the Rams.
“I’m not sure I can be a second on most teams,” Avello said.
“He’s their biggest danger,” added Sherman, who has Chicago within 6/5 to win its second Super Bowl.
“You wonder what the Bears could do with a confident quarterback.”
However, bookies seem skeptical about the NFC in general.
“From what I see, there’s not much going on in the conference,” Avello said.
St. Clair has been impressed with New Orleans, to say the least.
“We all know how good Bush and Brees are and the Saints have been playing really well,” he said.
“I guess the Bears are the best in the NFC and Grossman is halfway decent.
“It should be an interesting Super Bowl.”
The Hilton lists the AFC as a 4 1/2-point favorite for the Super Bowl and the total at 46 1/2.